U.S. Economic Indicators

The number of people who filed a first-time claim for state unemployment benefits in the week, published every Thursday by the Department of Labor.

Why it matters: The most timely read on layoffs. A sustained rise usually shows up before a weakening in the monthly jobs report. Lower is better.

The number of people still receiving unemployment benefits after their first week, reported with a one-week lag to initial claims.

Why it matters: Shows how easy it is for laid-off workers to find new jobs. Rising continuing claims mean people are staying unemployed longer. Lower is better.

Monthly change in private-sector jobs estimated by payroll processor ADP from its clients' payroll data, released two days before the government jobs report.

Why it matters: An early, independent read on hiring. It often differs from the official payrolls number, so markets treat it as a preview rather than a forecast.

The monthly change in the number of U.S. jobs outside farming, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' survey of employers (the Employment Situation report, usually the first Friday of the month).

Why it matters: The single most market-moving economic release. It drives expectations for Fed policy, consumer spending and growth. Earlier months are revised, so the Notes show revisions.

The share of the labor force (people working or actively looking for work) who are unemployed, from the BLS household survey.

Why it matters: The headline measure of labor-market slack and one half of the Fed's mandate. Lower is better, although a very low rate can add to wage and price pressure.

An index of how households feel about their finances and the economy, from the University of Michigan's monthly survey. A preliminary reading comes mid-month and a final reading at month-end.

Why it matters: Mood can lead spending. The survey also reports households' inflation expectations, which the Fed watches closely.

The number of unfilled job openings at the end of the month, from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. It is released with about a two-month lag.

Why it matters: Measures employers' demand for workers. Openings well above the number of unemployed signal a tight labor market and upward pressure on wages.

The monthly change in outstanding consumer debt, covering revolving credit (credit cards) and nonrevolving loans (auto and student loans), from the Federal Reserve's G.19 release.

Why it matters: Shows how much households are borrowing to spend. Strong growth can support spending, but it can also signal strain when incomes are not keeping up.

The monthly percentage change in all income households receive (wages, business income, interest, dividends and government benefits), from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Why it matters: Income growth is what funds future spending. Comparing it with spending shows whether households are saving or drawing down savings.

The monthly percentage change in consumer spending on goods and services (personal consumption expenditures) in dollar terms, from the BEA.

Why it matters: Consumer spending is about two-thirds of U.S. GDP, so this is the main engine of growth.

The monthly percentage change in sales at stores, online retailers and restaurants, from the Census Bureau's advance estimate. It is not adjusted for inflation.

Why it matters: The earliest monthly read on consumer demand for goods. Strong retail sales support growth, but they can also keep inflation elevated.

The monthly percentage change in real output of U.S. factories, mines and utilities, from the Federal Reserve's G.17 release.

Why it matters: Tracks the goods side of the economy. It is cyclical and often turns before the broader economy does.

The share of the industrial sector's potential output that is actually being used, from the Federal Reserve.

Why it matters: High utilization means little spare capacity, which can lead to more investment and price pressure. Low utilization signals slack.

The monthly percentage change in new orders for goods meant to last three years or more, such as machinery, aircraft and appliances, from the Census Bureau.

Why it matters: A forward-looking gauge of business investment and manufacturing. It swings with lumpy aircraft orders, so the Notes show the ex-transportation figure.

The monthly percentage change in new orders for all manufactured goods, durable and nondurable, from the Census Bureau's full factory report.

Why it matters: Broadens the durable-goods picture. Rising orders point to more production in the months ahead.

A monthly survey index of purchasing managers at manufacturers, from the Institute for Supply Management. It covers new orders, production, employment, deliveries and inventories.

Why it matters: A reading above 50 means manufacturing is expanding; below 50 means it is contracting. It is one of the earliest monthly reads on the business cycle.

The services-sector version of the ISM survey, covering businesses such as retail, finance, healthcare and hospitality.

Why it matters: Services are most of the economy. Above 50 means expansion. Its prices-paid component is watched as an early signal on services inflation.

An index of how small-business owners view the economy, sales, hiring and credit, from the National Federation of Independent Business. It is benchmarked so that 1986 = 100.

Why it matters: Small firms employ nearly half of private-sector workers. The index's long-run average is about 98, so readings above that signal confidence.

The Conference Board's composite of ten forward-looking indicators, including jobless claims, new orders, building permits, the stock market and the yield curve.

Why it matters: Designed to signal turning points in the business cycle. Several months of declines have historically come before recessions.

The monthly percentage change in the value of new construction put in place (residential, commercial and public), from the Census Bureau.

Why it matters: Reflects investment in buildings and infrastructure, which is sensitive to interest rates and feeds directly into GDP.

A monthly survey of home builders' confidence in the market for new single-family homes, from the National Association of Home Builders. It runs from 0 to 100.

Why it matters: Above 50 means more builders see conditions as good than poor. It is an early read on new home construction and sales.

The number of new homes on which construction began, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from the Census Bureau.

Why it matters: Housing is a key rate-sensitive sector. Starts drive construction jobs and spending on materials and furnishings.

The number of permits issued for new homes, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from the Census Bureau.

Why it matters: Permits come before starts, so they are a leading indicator of future home construction.

Closed sales of previously owned homes, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from the National Association of Realtors.

Why it matters: The bulk of the housing market. It reflects affordability, mortgage rates and household mobility. The Notes show the median sale price.

The monthly change in the National Association of Realtors' index of signed contracts on existing homes that have not closed yet.

Why it matters: Contracts close in one to two months, so this leads existing home sales.

Sales of newly built single-family homes, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from the Census Bureau. Sales are counted when the contract is signed.

Why it matters: A timely read on demand for new construction. It is volatile and heavily revised.

The year-over-year change in the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. metro areas. It tracks repeat sales of the same homes and is reported with about a two-month lag.

Why it matters: The benchmark for home-price trends. Home prices affect household wealth, affordability and the shelter component of inflation.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for borrowers with strong credit, from Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, published on Thursdays.

Why it matters: The key cost of buying a home. It follows the 10-year Treasury yield and drives housing affordability and refinancing activity.

The monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' measure of prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. Seasonally adjusted.

Why it matters: The most-watched inflation gauge. It moves bond yields and Fed expectations. Lower is better.

The percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over the past 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. This is the headline inflation rate.

Why it matters: The inflation rate people hear about. The Fed's goal is about 2% inflation, measured by PCE, which usually runs a little below CPI.

The monthly percentage change in the Producer Price Index for final demand, which measures prices received by U.S. producers for goods, services and construction. From the BLS.

Why it matters: Measures inflation at the wholesale level, which can pass through to consumer prices.

The Producer Price Index for final demand over the past 12 months, not seasonally adjusted.

Why it matters: Shows the trend in business input and selling costs. A rise can squeeze profit margins or be passed on to consumers.

The 12-month change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding food and energy, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Why it matters: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Its 2% inflation target is measured on PCE. Lower is better while inflation is above target.

Core PCE inflation for the latest quarter, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from the BEA's GDP report.

Why it matters: Shows the recent pace of underlying inflation, which reacts faster than the 12-month rate.